Comments on Tory Bear - right-wing political gossip: If you were in a good mood this morning...

I'll never vote BluLabour led by the "hei...

2009-11-15T16:18:34.036Z

I'll never vote BluLabour led by the "heir to blair":
BNP
UKIP
or nobody

"An internal party document"?! What a jo...

2009-11-15T09:40:43.716Z

"An internal party document"?! What a joke - this line has been attached to hundreds of widely distributed party emails for months. Not to mention that Eric Pickles has talked about it plenty of times with regard to the election.

If only we had proportional representation...

2009-11-15T04:09:54.727Z

If only we had proportional representation...

I have to admit, was somewhat of a surprise to see...

2009-11-15T02:20:54.437Z

I have to admit, was somewhat of a surprise to see my lecturer's name appear on TB!

This line is being peddled furiously by CCHQ to ma...

2009-11-14T23:41:09.573Z

This line is being peddled furiously by CCHQ to make everyone work harder. The bare facts are true. But it's not as gloomy than they make out.

Labour are unpopular - who on earth wants Brown as PM in 2015?

The electorate are more fickle than they used to be.

Tactical voting is unwinding.

The Conservatives have learned how to campaign locally - Labour have forgotten.

The funding disparity between the local party's is greater than it has ever been before.

Cameron is disproportionately popular in the marginals. And Brown is disproportionately loathed in the the marginals.

The economy is totally Fcuked. And everyone blames Gordon.

....and not a mention of the BNP - yet. I am surp...

2009-11-14T20:25:13.059Z

....and not a mention of the BNP - yet.

I am surprised at the number of tory voters that I know who are seriously considering giving their vote to the BNP.

They say that they don't want a BNP government, but they would rather vote that way than vote for Cameron, and more of the same old, same old.

They have a point, perhaps.

Jesus, Mr Obourne is extremely slow on the up take...

2009-11-14T20:13:13.708Z

Jesus, Mr Obourne is extremely slow on the up take here, i heard about this academic work just under one year ago.

Cameron is damaging his own chances by the recent ...

2009-11-14T17:32:06.377Z

Cameron is damaging his own chances by the recent announcement on the EU/Referendum.

He should have held a Referendum - so that, armed with the result, he could start negotiating with the EU.

He has lost many votes - including mine - to UKIP.

The issue of the lead is misleading if it is based...

2009-11-14T16:00:18.761Z

The issue of the lead is misleading if it is based on "then" vs "now" ie 1997 vs 2010.

Also, the seats are not for the Tories to win, they are for Labour to lose.

The Brown mini-revival is being talked up, but I can't see why. Some sympathy over being kicked by the Sun and keeping an ultra-safe Labour seat do not herald a revival.

Do you think replace one left wing statist with an...

2009-11-14T15:26:00.659Z

Do you think replace one left wing statist with another will make any difference?

iDave promises to ring fence NHS spending, SureStart spending and overseas aid. He's spent years strutting his green creds. Oh yeah, and the Lisbon Treaty promise - that wnet so well.

Oborne's article has been dismissed by those o...

2009-11-14T14:26:57.024Z

Oborne's article has been dismissed by those over at politicalbetting on the basis that he knows nowt about opinion polls.

Oborne says: For almost all of 1996, Blair's Labour Party enjoyed a poll rating of well over 50 per cent, while its advantage over the Tories was consistently in double figures.

This polling comparison has been shown to be a myth on numerous occasions by Mike Smithson, in fact one of the latest posts says this on Labour's 97 polling leads:

As has been frequently pointed out, not least on this site, the methodology used in polling has changed significantly since 1997. Only ICM can be compared on a like-for-like basis, and using that sequence, the Tories’ lead is very close to where Labour was at the same time in the parliament - in the mid- to high-teens. Laughably, Sky’s Poll Tracker - linked in the article - gives the May 1997 Labour figure as 59%. Labour actually polled about 43% at the general election that month.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/14/is-michael-thrasher-right-about-a-hung-parliament/

And when you now allow for the inevitable defectio...

2009-11-14T14:06:28.553Z

And when you now allow for the inevitable defection of all true Eurosceptics to UKIP or BNP, then Welching Dave would seem to have even less chance than "Boom & Bust" Broon.

This isn't actually the case: https://conserva...

2009-11-14T12:47:30.376Z

This isn't actually the case:

https://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2009/11/mountaintoclimb.html

Entirely not surprised. Labour have spent over a d...

2009-11-14T12:07:57.568Z

Entirely not surprised. Labour have spent over a decade cynically Gerrymandering boundaries and introducing measures to favour their supporters in the polls.

I don't think it will be enough to save them.