Comments on Tory Bear - right-wing political gossip: +++Labour Hold Extremely Safe Seat+++

Not sure if I agree with your analysis of the Ques...

2009-11-14T03:29:46.806Z

Not sure if I agree with your analysis of the Question Time/Griffin impact on BNP votes, TB.

In the Euro elections in May the Tories and BNP polled roughly 550 votes each, but UKIP managed over 600.

UKIP didn't stand in the by-election, so if it's assumed most of its May votes were split between the Tories and BNP, and adjusting for the 50% increase in turnover (it was 21.6% in May!!) then 1,000 votes or so each for the Tories and BNP seems plausible without any Question Time fillip.

Be glad, the one eyed jock will remain to "le...

2009-11-13T20:48:25.098Z

Be glad, the one eyed jock will remain to "lead" nulab into the election.

We have them where we want them

First of all, I could show you a half a dozen leaf...

2009-11-13T13:45:05.532Z

First of all, I could show you a half a dozen leaflets that featured pictures of Willie and Gordon Brown. Maybe if you Tories had actually given a flying fuck about Glasgow then you might have come up and campaigned.

Secondly, you can't have it both ways. You say that the low turnout demonstrates that this is a very worrying result for Labour, yet it was a scarily good result for the BNP. Surely such a result would only be worrying if the turnout was high. Which is it TB???

I'm not going to pretend that Labour aren't in dire straits nationally but having campaigned in this by-election for nigh on five months one thing came has come across loud and clear - the people of Glasgow have longer memories than the rest of the country. Maybe that's because they were screwed over worst by the Tories last time.

A great explanation on SNP Tactical Voting. "...

2009-11-13T11:43:10.362Z

A great explanation on SNP Tactical Voting.

"As the commentators put it on the BBC coverage last night, the place of Glasgow North East is so hopeless in some quarters and so lacking in any kind of optimism that they cling to what they know, particularly the older generations"
...

@ Kim jong il Turnout fell by 12.5% and that was ...

2009-11-13T11:17:32.684Z

@ Kim jong il

Turnout fell by 12.5% and that was from a seeker seeking re-election!

This seat (and its predecessor, Glasgow Springburn) regularly got turnout close or even above 50% and a Labour result of up to 73%.

Really is a poor show for Labour and their Master look alike new MP.

Kim jong il: "What was the turnout last time ...

2009-11-13T10:58:50.266Z

Kim jong il:
"What was the turnout last time for that seat? I bet it wasn't much higher than 33%."

Turnout was 45.8% - substantially higher.
Labour majority in 2005 : 10000+

"So i think your point may be inadvertantly misleading. Or perhaps you are 'spinning' the result based on low turnout?"

Vote share for Labour increased in 2009, decreased for SNP. No Tory candidate in 2005.

Police have been called in to check some voting papers.

So 82% of the population didn't vote Labour. ...

2009-11-13T10:33:31.664Z

So 82% of the population didn't vote Labour.

I'll drink to that

TB.. Don't agree with your take (SNP extremis...

2009-11-13T10:32:06.274Z

TB..

Don't agree with your take (SNP extremist cousins)..

At Heriot Watt we actually found any sympathy towards the BNP mainly came from Tory supporters.

On the result..It was nothing more than a protest vote against a possible Tory government.

The SNP are well ahead of Labour for Holyrood so this result is no reflection on them.

The Tory party just came in 3rd, a total disgrace for a party craving power.

The South East (pop 16 million) votes Conservative and Scotland votes Labour (Pop 5.3 million).. Scotland gets Tory, that's why I vote SNP.

your figures of turn out need a marker to mean any...

2009-11-13T09:55:46.528Z

your figures of turn out need a marker to mean anything. What was the turnout last time for that seat? I bet it wasn't much higher than 33%. So i think your point may be inadvertantly misleading. Or perhaps you are 'spinning' the result based on low turnout?

And nearly 7000 postal votes too. Crikey, no wond...

2009-11-13T09:46:21.183Z

And nearly 7000 postal votes too.

Crikey, no wonder they were so confident!

There's a hidden story behind these results.

One that proves a long-held hypothesis about Labour voters . . .

D

The postal voting on this one should be looked at....

2009-11-13T07:46:59.503Z

The postal voting on this one should be looked at.

Over 1000 people registered for a postal vote in the last three days of campaigning...I smell a great big zanu labour rat.