The Future is Bright...

As

Yapping Yousuf

notes, on first impression, the headline figures for

Westminster voting intention in Scotland

isn't great for the Tories. While it will be fantastic to take back seats like Edinburgh South and Perth and North Perthshire, that we would with these figures, it is hardly the massive Caledonian recovery that many would like to see.

However it is not all bad news. If the figures for just those under 55 - the next generation so to speak, are studied, the tories are in 2nd place behind Labour. There is still the resentment of Thatcher and the last tory government, but it seems to be beginning to fade. It's the Conservatives who will be the opposition to Labour's stranglehold on Scotland in the elections that actually matter - ie Westminster.

Labour cannot be trusted to defend the union, especially given the chaos that they will be in after the election. They are not going to be in any fit state to fight the referendum campaign hand in hand with the tories after they have been wiped out whenever the election is.

The tories must capitalise on this fact and hoover up the pro-union votes of the overwhelming majority of Scots who do not want to destroy the UK.

Ed Miliband Gets Bitchslapped.

At 17:58 28/08/2009, Ed Miliband wrote:

Idris,

I emailed you earlier this week to tell you about my new website EdsPledge.com, well today marks a 100 days left until Copenhagen.

During the week people have been visiting EdsPledge.com to add their support – they realise that we need to show the strength of public feeling to get the ambitious, effective and fair deal we need.

The amount of passion I have seen in the messages of support people have left me in no doubt that we have more chance of getting a deal if we have real voices demanding action.

You may have many friends who aren't members of the Party, and won't receive this email, so I am asking you to forward this email onto them now. Ask them to make our pledge for a deal that's ambitious, effective and fair.

Share EdsPledge.com with your friends

Ambitious means no more than a 2 degree temperature rise, with developed-country emissions to peak in five years and then the whole world peaking within ten.

Effective means keeping countries to their word, and letting money flow to where it will make the most difference.

Fair means supporting the poorest countries to cut their emissions and adapt to climate change.

So please forward this email on now, or EdsPledge.com lets you send an email invitation, post a message to Facebook or Twitter - or simply just forward this email on to few friends right now.

Share EdsPledge.com with your friends

Thanks for your support.

Ed

Ps. If you want to get instant updates on how the campaign is going just follow me on Twitter.

---------------------------------------

Reply to: Ed Miliband :

Mr. Miliband,

It's "Mr. Francis" not "Idris" to you, Mr. Miliband - I have no intention of being on first name terms with you or any of your terminally incompetent colleagues.

At almost 70 years of age I cannot remember a more clueless, a more dishonest, a more devious Government and Cabinet than we now have. That you still, apparently, believe that "global warming" is man-made - when for 10 years the earth has cooled, that for centuries it was warmer than it now is, that the science - more akin to a religion - is pure junk and hocus-pocus - tells us all we need to know.

Time is indeed running out, for ZanuNuLabour, only a few months to go before the lot of you - those who survive the election at all - are consigned to the back benches for a generation.

Good riddance, may it be sooner rather than later. God knows, little did I think when Major headed what was then the worst government in living memory, that he would be succeeded by someone and some Cabinet worse still - or that they in turn would prove to be excellent compared to the debris and swarf of political life that now holds power.

But not for much longer, Mr. Miliband, not for much longer. The endless lies, hypocrisy, false claims, pathetic promises that end up broken, all will soon be at an end.

Like your career in politics, and like your brother's

Sincerely

Idris Francis

Well that should have taught him the error of his harvesting ways.

UPDATE 17.47: It seems this post has caused some stirrings on the left. Tom Harris MP seemed to have missed the fact TB posted this funny exchange due to the stinging rebuke that a Minister received from, shock horror, a actual member of the public and instead spun it as proof the Conservative Party aren't progressive. For the record TB set down his views on the man-made climate myth

here

.

Adam Boulton Calls "Shotgun!" on TV Debate

Sky News political editor Adam Boulton has

added to the calls

for there to be televised debates between the party leaders at the next election, simultaneously placing him in line to be the man to host and chair such an event. It is highly likely that these debates will take place finally and fair play to Boulton for positioning himself early.

Beats Andrew Marr any day...

Given that it's a Bank Holiday it will probably be raining today, so TB had a youtube trawl for some classic US debate moments to keep you all entertained. Enjoy:











Who's got some good put downs for Dave to use?

A week is a long time in...

Ladies and Gentleman, TB would like to introduce a charming lady friend Hermione Hope-Change. Hermione works for an MEP and will be reporting weekly from the European Parliament. Expect gossip, rumour and saucy tales from the dark heart of Europe...

Here we are again, the start of a new term. Was at home for the summer hols so took the opportunity to pop into Smiths for a new highlighter set and some colouring pencils which are neatly installed in my stationery drawer now. Also spent Monday arranging my pictures in the new office. Darling Boris is near the door so that I can look at him but still appear to be attentive when El Boss-man sticks his head around to keep me up to date with what Hannan's been up to.

Speaking of Hannan, sweet Dan, I can't for the life of me understand why they ban Facebook in some offices. I was one of the first people to know, for example, that last month he said something about idolising Enoch Powell. And rightly so – the NHS wastes veritable rivers of blood through maladministration yearly, I'm told. Maybe I should organise a Parliamentary blood drive; show the country we're behind the health system too.

Although frankly I'm not sure I have time to take on another project. These Committees are terribly complicated, and half the time the reports are in French or even Czech. I know it's a dreadful stereotype and one mustn't subscribe to them apparently, but the French secretariat staff are so bloody rude. I swear the only work they ever do utilises an emery board. And it's not just a bias due to jealousy on our part because we don't share their sense of style – one of them actually tutted at me the other day when I pointed out that my French teacher had recently said that my accent was definitely improving.

Am rather looking forward to Prague in two weeks for the European Conservatives and Reformist Study Week trip, and not only to watch Ratty, Kirkhope, Hannan and Helmer spend a week together in the same room (what a shame McMillan-Scott won't be there – the tension between him and Kaminsky would have been electrifying). Rumour has it that Ratty really bawled out Hannan and Helmer over the whole NHS debacle though, so we may yet have some entertainment. By the way, does anyone know the Czech for 'Thank you'? Or, for that matter, 'Glass of wine, please'?

Still no word back from Cosham Conservatives. I suppose they have a whole beauty pageant of applicants to look at by now, even that darned Tamzin Lightwater got in on the act. Still, I thought I was sporting a rather winning smile in that photo. Just the sort of image Cosham needs after duckponds...

Hermione will be back next Saturday.

A taste of things to come?

So the

news has broken

that Fraser Nelson will take over from Matthew D'Ancona as editor of The Spectator. Congratulations are in order to both of them, firstly to Matthew for what has been a fantastic tenure, of which the lasting legacy must be the 75k circulation and the

Coffee House

. TB is massively intrigued to where he is heading next and there has been

much speculation

already this evening. Just look where the last editor ended up. Secondly to Fraser, who is getting ready to fill a prestigious pair of shoes.

Nelson's News of the World column is a must read every week and TB is looking forward to see where he takes the Speccie.

Fib Dems

Owen Meredith

has been doing some digging around the Liberal Youth recruitment materials that have been published online

here

. He writes:

It was

reported last September

that a long-term Liberal Democrat policy would face the axe after Stephen Williams, Lib Dem Shadow Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills, said free higher education and scrapping of tuition fees was not sustainable.

In a pre-conference interview with the

Times Higher Education

, Williams said that Nick Clegg, had come to the decision the policy was not viable after "long internal discussions".

The Lid Dem team is slowly but surely backing away from promises on free education, free personal care for the elderly and a raft of other unaffordable pledges a third party can make knowing they will never be in power or have to deliver.

It would seem that Elaine didn't get the memo though:

That's right, just recruit students with some lies about what your party stands for. Nice typo at the bottom too. Leaflets have already been sent out.

Savvy.

"You actually like me..."

TB is extremely chuffed to have been voted number eight in the Total Politics right of centre blog listings. When he came thirty fifth last year a friend said to him, that he would have be top ten next year, to which TB replied "Yeah right...". Thank you so much to everyone who voted and congratulations to everyone else. The full list can be seen by clicking through to

Total Politics

but here is the top ten:

1 1

Guido Fawkes

2 2

Iain Dale

3 6

Spectator Coffee House

4 3

Conservative Home

5 4

Dizzy Thinks

6 5

Devil's Kitchen

7 14

Daniel Hannan MEP

8 35 Tory Bear
9 12

Archbishop Cranmer

10 8

John Redwood MP

Thank you again.

"They want to save the world...

...but all they do is smoke pot and smell bad."

TB is getting increasingly pissed off with the news that the gypo encampment on Blackheath common is growing. Sources down wind in Greenwich have reported that the stench of cheap weed and compost loos is already becoming quite unbearable. TB has a solution for dealing with this infestation of hippies, taught to him by a wise sage and great political influence, Dr E. Cartman.

Dr. Cartman designed the perfect hippy disposal device that TB recommends be employed to deal with the infestation of soap-dodgers as soon as possible:

Here is the "Hippie Core Drill Machine" in action:

Failing that some tear gas should do the trick.

Quote of the Day

TB was trying to work out where exactly the Daily Telegraph traffic he is getting this afternoon was coming from when he discovered

this gem

from

Ed West

:

"Enoch Powell was an influential economic thinker, a Thatcherite before Thatcher, something anyone with a modicum of intelligence will know – but unfortunately for a generation raised in the comprehensive system, whose knowledge of history could fill one of their gormless tweets, “Uncle Enoch” is known only for his views on immigration, a bogeyman in our liberal paradise."

Bang on. Ok last word on the subject, promise.

"I am a virus. I am the virus that kills socialists."

Not for the faint hearted or those of a wet disposition, but newbie blogger "Freedom Fighter" has given a

passionate defence

of Daniel Hannan and Enoch Powell. It is well worth a read:

"It's no wonder the left would despise Powell with such zeal; he was, for the most part, right. It's scary that an ideology that prizes economic freedom, individual liberty, and personal-responsibility is constantly under attack while a political ideology among whose ideological influences advocated eugenics, severe restrictions on civil liberties, property redistribution by force, dictatorial government, and at times outright murder is considered 'modern' and 'progressive'. When Parmjit Dhanda, Labour MP for Gloucester, asks 'is it acceptable for a the modern Conservatives Party to attack the NHS and praise Enoch Powell?', I should bloody well hope the answer is yes, else Jonah Goldberg is right and 'we're all fascists now'."

If you like you politics blunt and sound then TB would recommend bookmarking

The Snakebite

.

So he hasn't gone native...

Andy Hartley has got in touch to

retract

the comments he made about Daniel Hannan yesterday.

That's more like it.

Careful she might punch you...

She has a name that sounds like it could have been made up by Private Eye, and now it seems that Grace Fletcher-Hackwood has had her

Twitter profile hijacked

. "Hackbitch" as she is commonly known since she had to resign from her job responsible for welfare on campus after she

hit a student

, is one of Kerry "Twitter Tsar" McCarthy's minions, who along with the likes of "

Bevanite Ellie

" (who is kinda cute incidentally,) have given the tories hours of amusement with their fem-nazi, party line devotion and hysterical partisan rantings. It wasn't going to be long before someone started to mess with them:

Seems the real Hackwood

changed her name

on Twitter (she has a habit of this in real life too,) and someone dived in and claimed the old one. You may laugh at her ridiculous joke bio; "Imagine Harriet Harman on drugs. I'm not on drugs. But if Harriet Harman was, she might be a bit like me." but no, no, she really did say that.

Harriet Harman and this lot could probably do with drugs of some form. Calm the little dears down.

Tip of the Hat to TB's man in North Briton for pointing it out.

Powell, Hannan and going native...

Urrrrgh.

They're at it again

. LabourList have for the first time in a while gone down the

old sensationalist route

that it was founded on and needs to be careful not to recreate the hysterical tone of its previous editor. TB can barely be bothered to humour Labour's latest attempts to smear Dan Hannan. Others have done so in a far more erudite fashion than a sleepy bear can muster:

Guido:

Powell was cited by him in a list of influences which included Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek – all of whom were ideologically opposed to immigration restrictions. The fact is that Hannan and his ideological fan base (such as it is) are more liberal on immigration policy than the official Labour Party position…

Working Class Tory:

Labour MP Parmjit Dhanda has now got involved with the Daniel Hannan "controversy" by making a statement which I don't think could possibly state the opposite of the truth with more precision:
"Last week Daniel Hannan attacked the NHS. Now he's talking up Enoch Powell as a key influence for Cameron's Conservatives."
Why don't you read the damn interview you moron? It quite clearly says "Who are your political influences? I've seen you reference Ron Paul, I believe you have referenced Hayek and Freidman on your blog."

Alex Massie of The Spectator:

If a politician expresses admiration for Winston Churchill do you immediately think that he's a great fan of, among other considerations, casual indifference to the Bengal famine, the use of chemical weapons in Iraq or the pulverisation and total destruction of German cities? Of course you don't. But when a politician says he admires Enoch Powell it's as if he'd decided to fill the Tiber with blood by scurrying around the country and slaughtering the children of every immigrant in the land.

And, just to be clear, if Hannan had bigged-up Powell's views on immigration while he was talking to Reason* the chances are that he'd have been challenged on them. That's because Reason's a libertarian magazine that, you know, is pretty relaxed about the free movement of people and generally disapproves of border supremacists and absolutists.

Anyway, whatever you think of Hannan's views, isn't it unpatriotic - if we must travel down this dreary road - to suggest that he be bullied into silence?

Please, people, let this Summer of Stupidity end soon.

So there we have it, Labour have failed again. Perhaps this would be the perfect time to quote Enoch: "A politician complaining about the media is like a fisherman complaining about the sea." Something Dan has no doubt thought in the last twelve hours.

What did come as a surprise however is the reaction of a particular tory to this pathetic attempt at a smear by Labour.

The World of JR

is the blog of one the UK's few card carrying Conservative student union sabbatical officers.

Andy "JR" Hartley

is a sabb at Manchester Met University and is a member of the Conservatives. He also claims to be a conservative. He posted

this

last night:

OK, now Hannan has had it!
I ask David Cameron to please get rid of this idiot.

This isn't the first time JR has shown

less-than-open-minded

views to other party members and is taking an increasingly authoritarian/NewLabourish stance against Hannan on his blog.

It would be a terrible shame if this former poster boy for all those tories who want to get involved in student politics and take the fight to the NUS has gone native, but it is looking increasingly like that.

Maybe there is a lesson to be learnt there.

News from very Liberal Youth

Change the record TB hears you cry, but one final story about youth wings and party staff. It's been awhile since TB turned his attention to his old friends over at Liberal Youth. Since their member of staff resigned from Cowley Street five months ago,

Elaine Bagshaw

everyone's favourite Labour-hack-turned-yellow, the Chairman of Liberal Youth has mysteriously not managed to find a new staffer.

With jobs to work in a party HQ normally going like hot cakes, especially considering the generous pay package associated with the job, this does seem mighty odd. It comes as no surprise given her track record that the gossip is now doing the rounds that Elaine has been deliberately impeding the selection process, leaving her organisation understaffed and all the while making a big song and dance of how much work she has to do and hard she's working/great she is.

Now the word has reached Tory Bear that Elaine is trying to get an amendment through their conference in November* - making the LY Chairman position a sabbatical one. So TB imagines that also means she wants to install herself as the sabbatical chairman for a third term. This can only be a good thing, given the fact that the hideously incompetent and unelectable Bagshaw will eventually run LY into the ground. There was even the ridiculous suggestion that she wants to move the Liberal Youth office oop north closer to her home.

Now that's just lazy... and as for the rest of the rumours TB has been hearing about what Elaine has been up to? Well apart from her ordering a grands worth of seeds to give out in freshers packs (WTF?) and approving 3k for a website, (TB thinks you might have got done over there guys,) the rest are unprintable, for the time being.

Sounds like the LY "Activate Weekend" was err... rather active though.

*TB was semi-invited to speak at the Liberal Youth conference later on in the Autumn. Does that offer still stand?

Who was Deep Throat?

When TB first started blogging it was to a handful of Conservative Future activists who wanted to hear libelous gossip about each other. Things have grown a lot since then, but TB still relies on his sources for most of his insidery stuff, be it con, lib or lab. Most people sadly now refrain from talking candidly in front of TB, but that doesn't mean you can't let him know what you know anonymously. For those who are new to the site please find Tory Bear's updated contact details below. TB has let things go a little in the last few months, but he is looking to up his game and devote more time to the blog in the run up to conference...

What do you know?

Email: editor@torybear.com
(drop TB a line if you want to speak on the phone and he will call you back.)

Twitter

@torybear

BlackBerry: 210250F0

Head in the Sand

Paul "Scoop" Waugh at The Standard

has what could potentially come a big headache for Brown:

"Gordon Brown ignored a stark warning that "toxic" bank loans could lead to global financial collapse, a leading US hedge fund chief has revealed.

Jim Chanos said that Mr Brown, while Chancellor of the Exchequer, was given a briefing that predicted banks were in dire danger - more than a year before the crisis hit last year."

Cheers Gordon.

Image via

The Rascal

Banter:

Tip of the hat to

Holyrood Patter

for this one.

Things Can Only Get Better...

Well it wouldn't be hard to beat this:



Clue number one to some conference fun TB has planned...

The Sound of Music

This is awesome:



Via

Trixy

In Out of the Loop

TB has blundered. Apparently CF has recently appointed a full time member of staff, working out of CCHQ. In light of his recent post it seems the time has come when no one ever tells him anything. That's what he gets for going away for weeks on end. His post did however have the interests of the organisation at heart.

Given the great things he is heard and some of the freshers stuff he saw tonight, it sounds like that Kate Fuller is doing a wonderful job. TB has been there and knows how hard the freshers campaign is, and it is particularly heartening to hear that the CF members database is being conquered.

Kate there is a TB bag-for-life in the post. Keep up the good work.

Please can TB have one of those Party for Change t-shirts he understands are going out?