Wonk?

Game Time for Bercow

Dear new Member,

Many congratulations and welcome to the House.

Please forgive me for this generic email being brief and to the point.

The first job of the House today is to appoint the Speaker. The Father of the House, Sir Peter Tapsell, will present a motion to the House that John Bercow remains as Speaker.

At this point, members will shout 'Aye', on this occasion there will also be members from all parties shouting 'No'. If enough members shout 'No', this will force a division and your first vote as new members will be to vote for or against appointing John Bercow as Speaker.

At this point, the green monitors will flash with the words 'Division' and the division bell will ring. This is a free vote and is entirely unwhipped and so whether to vote or not is wholly your decision. You will also have the option to abstain, and so you do not enter either of the voting lobbies.

Despite scare mongering by some left-wing commentators, there will be no repercussions according to which way you vote.

I am sure you are aware that during the previous Parliamentary term Mr Bercow was appointed as Speaker, with unanimous Labour and a handful of Conservative votes. In the words of a Labour whip, it was done to 'stick it to the Tories'.

That aside, there are a number of reasons why, since his appointment, Mr Bercow has proven unsuitable in the Speaker's role. Not least, on the occasions during the last session when Mr Bercow found remaining impartial, a crucial quality in the role of Speaker, very difficult, leading to a number of heated exchanges between the Speaker and Conservative MPs.

We are about to head into choppy political waters. It is imperative we have a Speaker who possesses dignity, gravitas, ability, wisdom and who can command respect from all sides of the House. A Speaker beyond reproach, who via his experience has earned the entitlement to such an important office.

There are a number of candidates from all sides imminently more suitable, able and willing; Edward Leigh, Sir Menzies Campbell, Alan Hazlehurst, and Margaret Beckett.

It is imperative that we are seen to begin this Parliament renewed and afresh. We can only do that with a democratic vote for the Speaker. If Mr Bercow wins the vote, he will have the endorsement of the whole House and not just the Labour party.

The Labour MP Kate Hoey, who is supporting the vote and I will be acting as tellers. If you come to the division lobby there will be members on the doors directing you to the lobby depending on which way you wish to vote. I am sure you understand the importance of this vote. I look forward to counting you out of the lobby during your first division.
With very best wishes,

Yours,

Nadine Dorries.

Will it be enough? Fingers crossed...

Sound

What Next for Scotland?

The Scottish Tory party is a mess. Please feel free to send TB thoughts on what next, what beyond a much needed change of leader, can be done. A Caledonian conspirator writes:

As you will probably know (or are at least aware of the arguments for), Scotland has historically and traditionally been a conservative country. My countrymen’s recent dogged and, frankly, frustrating attempts to blame Thatcher for the countries woes are now unfounded. Our inability to take responsibility for ourselves, and corresponding blind loyalty to Labour, has done us more damage in the last couple of decades than Lady T ever did.

The meaning of “the union” has always been influx. The Scots and English have always had a different law, education and health systems and both countries have maintained their own separate cultures – hence the reason that a union was required (otherwise it’d just be one country). But then you know all this…

How do we wrestle Scotland back from the grip of a destructive, corrupt and entrenched Labour party who do nothing but take their vote in Scotland for granted?

I would suggest that the Tories need to acknowledge the new constitutional reality in the UK and revise their interpretation of ‘the union’. (One of the features, for me at least, of the recent leaders debates was that the BBC clearly had not. I’m not suggesting the SNP should have got an equal footing, the constitutional anomalies would have been as good as impossible to address, but there was little recognition of this when the debates were being agreed between the broadcasters (I could be wrong here)).

So, basically, I think the Scottish Tories should publically acknowledge what many of them do in private. The Scots should be granted full political and fiscal autonomy. This is completely consistent with conservatism (de-centralisation / individual responsibility / etc) and would create competition between the two countries (which, again, a key feature of conservatism). This would probably need a complete separation between the Scots Tories and the Westminster based party to assure the Scots that connections to the ‘nasty party’ have been severed but an ideological partnership could be retained.

We could then redefine the union as a cultural and social one. Free labour movement, both countries could leave the EU (they would have to – and I’d argue for Scotland to stay out and join EFTA), etc, etc…

As you rightly claim, an effective right of centre party is completely absent from Scotland. This is not only damaging (in terms of political arguments in Scotland being almost arbitrary) but it is inconsistent with the political make up of the Scots psyche.

Sure, there’d be problems and tension but to pretend that the current arrangement is doing anything other than sour the relations between the two countries is deluded.

Unionism is British nationalism. We should all have the courage to be nationalistic about our individual countries, rather than some strange ‘union’ that exists between them. Nationalism is a good thing as long as it does not lead one to think their nation is superior to other nations.

Consistent with this, I believe, my nationalism is all about individual responsibility and recognising Scotland’s failings as much as it is about promoting its strength. When I argue for an independent Scotland I do very much from a pro-England, and pro-English, perspective. Two great countries which are locked in a tense and unconstructive relationship.

When Hamilton and Button came first and second driving for McLaren in a recent Grand Prix it was billed as a British victory. Nonsense, it was an English one, and I was delighted for them. If I was English I would have wanted this to have been described as an English victory. I certainly didn’t feel the Scots should have been recognised, even implicitly.

TB's unionist credentials have softened since he moved to London. Regarding the ideas pitched here? Full fiscal yes but keeping the head of state, defence and FCO control and he might just be on to something... 

Best Campaign Ad Ever

Via

KRO

:



He'd get TB's vote.

A Tale of Two Launches

When David Miliband declared his candidacy for leader last week, his straight out of the block approach lead to a rushed launch with a group of exhausted, miserable, barely know Labour MPs. All as old or older than him. Having just fought and lost the election campaign, David Miliband looked like one of the guilty men, awkwardly trying to congratulate Cameron before being able to turn the conversation to his announcement.

Compare and contrast his younger, less dorky brother Ed's launch at the eugenics loving Fabian Society's conference this morning. Note-less and comfortable in front of a audience, his bid was greeted with sustained applause. Has someone being having a little media training?

It was hardly a tough crowd for Miliband the Younger to launch his pitch to the semi-respectful, squeezable, soft left block of his party. It was more David Cameron to David Miliband's Davis. There he was jacket off, "descamisado" style, setting up his stall to the metropolitan Labour chatterers, reminding them the need to break out and fight in the rest of the country.

Just the two images show who has the better team in place, the better campaign up and running. David might have the support of a fair chunk of Labour's heavily deflated parliamentary party on side, but lest we forget the members and the unions have just as much say in this fight. Through AV David must win outright in the first round to avoid floods of second preferences for Ed pipping him to the post.And just because an MP has publicly declared doesn't mean they won't change their mind. This is going to be a very long summer for Labour.

 It's important to remember these brothers haven't been exactly been allies for years. David was tightly embeded with the Blairites and Ed very much Brown's man through the last thirteen years of infighting and potshots. There will be no love lost here - when David Miliband was out there making noises before chickening out, his little brother was on TV defending Gordon against him.

No wonder Ed was so willing to drive a wedge through his entire family, to rebel against the natural order that was previously carefully adhered to. He's on to a winner here.. It can only be a matter of time before this is turned into a TV drama.

Prescott's Burnham Booboo

Wonder which candidate Prescott has in mind the help?

Though would any candidate want the full weight of GO4TH - the unsuccessful Prescott fronted operation to lead Labour into fourth place, backing them?

The Future of Blogging

A you may have noticed TB finds himself

tweeting

more and more as his day job takes over too much of his writing time. As the dust settles and routine gets back to normal, he will try get at least a few posts a day up. He will try get his full analysis of the last couple of months up this weekend. As if by coincidence TB's views on that power of blogging under the coalition, or lack of it, have been profiled by the BBC:

"What did surprise me is how quickly the prominent bloggers fell behind the Lib-Con coalition idea, you wouldn't expect that to happen so quickly, even though it is what was needed. We wouldn't want any unnecessary internal argument, it took us 15 years to regroup and be together.

I think after this election you will see how they will all push their own agendas about policies. Blogs have more power now, and any MP would be foolish not to take them seriously. They can bring you down."

You can read the whole article

here

.

Still Waiting...

So he finally made it. Waited a long time to see this:

Still waiting for the call from Dave to ask TB to be his Twitter Tsar...

Ding Dong

No time to blog. Follow TB on Twitter.

Brown's Legacy

TB is snowed under in all sort of post election excitement and the blog is clearly suffering. So the miserable old sod is off, but what will his

legacy

 be?

Who was it that said the BBC was biased?

Ouch

ConHome

has the list of seats that UKIP votes denied a Tory win:

Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901
Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829
Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267
Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043
Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408
Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881
Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506
Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188
Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200
Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928
St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757
St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560
Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428
Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737
Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711
Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274

Chihuahua

's in the Tory party - Conservative in the head, UKIP at heart - must find this wounding despite their obvious sympathy. The Balls result is particularly stinging.

TB Does a DC

Just managed to catch up with the last

Guy News

of the election campaign which you made of missed in the flurry of yesterday. Ladies and Gentlemen...The election coverage credits:



TB was sure he'd destroyed that last clip!

Meanwhile in 1992...

Via

Dale

this suddenly has a new resonence:



As does Hannan's poetic slamming last time the Tories bashed Labour at the polls:

The time has come, the time is now
just go go go I don't care how
you can go by foot, you can go by cow
Gordon Brown will you please go now

You can go on skates, you can go on Skis
You can go in a hat but please go please
I don't care, you can go by bike
you can go on a zike bike if you like

If you like you can go in an old blue shoe
Just go go go, please do do do
Gordon Brown I don't care how
Gordon Brown will you please go now!

Things Can Only Get Better

As TB drove down the Mall today in a cab, it wasn't exactly the dawn of the new age he quite wanted, but a new dawn none the less. Last night was a strange one, so many gains but some really painful loses. It's a real shame that the incoming government won't be served by Mark Clarke in Tooting, Shaun Bailey in Hammersmith, and Peter Lyburn in Perth and North Perthshire, TB is sure we have not heard the last of these guys. Those seats have been pounded hard for years by these excellent candidates and it was painful that they just missed out. Though it has to be said, there is no love lost that the demons finally got Phillipa Stroud. Overall, with one hundred gains it was a almost complete victory for Cameron. Funny that the left weren't spinning that 36% of the vote wasn't enough when Blair failed to even get that. 

So where do we go from here? Well it is right that the electoral system needs reforming. The only person to have a worse night than Gordon Brown was Nick Clegg. For all the hype, he managed to take his party backwards. Yet, he is on the brink of bring his party their first taste of power nearly a century. The Liberal Democrat activists would be churlish and plain stupid to reject this extremely generous offer to a minor party and the idea that some of them are still pushing that they could get into bed with Labour looks more and more like a joke every second. For Clegg to get the Home Office on his poor result last night would be a stunning achievement for him. Sorry Vince but it ain't gonna happen.

And so if it has to be coalition then so be it, but first on the agenda must be electoral reform - resizing of all constituencies - for fairness and a downsizing of Parliament - for fairness.  Civil liberties, education reform, tax cuts. Does it sound so dreadful!?

Clegg and Cameron finally ganged up to put the final nail into Gordon's coffin and with Cameron confirming that even if the yellow/blue talks he will be attempt a minority government. Gordon can cling on to the end of the weekend but what ever happened to a little dignity in his great office. He should just get in the car, get out the way and let what is going to happen on Monday happen today for the sake of the UK's financial security.

No doubt the post mortems will continue and TB has a lot to say on last night and will over the weekend and after a decent sleep. This could get very messy, but TB

concurs with Guido

. This is a rare change to destroy the Labour Party not only at the ballot box like last night, but forever. Let's get on it with it.

P.S. Just remembered like one of those awful drunken cold sweat flashbacks - damn we were close to getting Balls.Calvert 2010 might just have to wait until October.

Want to Get Drunk With TB Later?

A final message from the BIG Election Night Party:

It's the last chance to book for tonight's BIG Election Night Party at the Sports Cafe on Haymarket. Online bookings will close at 7PM and after that you will have to risk the door.

The only way to guarantee entry is to pre book at

www.bigelectionparty.co.uk

It looks set to be a great night. The kitchens will be open from 9am - 9pm as will the bar and the venue is set up into three zones - BBC, SKY NEWS HD and ITV News. There is loads of room for sitting down to eat, four bars, and lots of balloons...

Sky News, BBC, BBC London, a documentary team and even Danish TV will all be filming live from the event

Please bring your respective party paraphernalia and cheer on your team.

So don't miss out on what is set to be the biggest and best way to celebrate the end of the campaign.

Looking forward to seeing you all there

The BIG Election Team

www.bigelectionparty.co.uk

TB will be there all night and, if the results go the right way, he would recommend being near him at the bar at after the Tooting, Bournemouth and Perth results are declared...

Good Morning it's Polling Day

As the CCHQ countdown clock shows, finally it's all over. This campaign has been one of extremes - there was the farcical, with Gordon's disaster after disaster, the surreal with Nick Clegg actually taking seriously and of course the constant intense media speculation about, err, wives. Either way it's make your mind up time. TB predicts a small and he means very small Tory majority.

Lad

Ed Balls Attack Ad

He was only following orders!

Exclusive: 13 Years of Labour

Worst PM Eveeer

A busy TB is greatly enjoying the I Blame Sood mess. Another day, another destroyed news cycle for Gordon. This made TB laugh too:

Off to Tooting tonight to campaign against the evil Khan.

Final Tory Election Broadcast

Very simple, very slick.

Thursday Night

The Sports Cafe is looking like the place to be on Thursday, if only to charge your Blackberry and get a drink at 5am. Book tickets

HERE

. Lots of people heading there after the counts. TB will be blogging from there live all night.

The Trial of Gordon Brown

CCHQ are pushing this tonight:



Is this the first glimpse of that elusive cancelled cinema ad?

Exclusive: A Hung Parliament? Don't Risk it.

Well when you say it like that...

More

here

.

What Happened to Tony?

Is the guilt eating him away?

Why Kerry Must Face the Music

Red Rag

is on form explaining why, despite her best attempts to brush the issue under the carpet, her deliberate breach of electoral law must be punished:

"A statement from Miss McCarthy was later issued by the Labour Party. “On hearing the results of a random and unscientific sample of postal votes, I posted them on Twitter. It was a thoughtless thing to do, and I very quickly realised that it was not appropriate to put such information in the public domain.”

This could be considered a storm in a teacup, a minor mistake made by a naive young MP. The facts though are somewhat different, Kerry McCarthy was a solicitor and has been charged with rallying the troops on Twitter. The 'sample' she posted showed Labour with a strong lead and were specifically intended to motivate her supporters and thus effect the outcome of the election.

If ever the maximum penalty was called for it should be for somebody who was deliberately trying to influence the outcome. There is no doubt that this was Kerry McCarthy's intention."

Damn straight.

Will He Make it to Thursday?

Monday - Candidate Disaster
Tuesday -

Peppa Pig Disaster

Wednesday - Mrs Duffy Disaster
Thursday - Debate Disaster
Friday -

Car Crash Disaster

Saturday -

Heckler Heavies Disaster

What does Gordon do for an encore?

Guy News: Inside the Spin Room II

The second video TB did from the spin room at the BBC Leaders Debate on Thursday:



Apologies for the delay in getting it posted. Much needed lie in today...

The first video, a Campbell special, is here.

Quote of the Day

On comparing filming notes with

Emily Nomates

:

TB: Yeah quite a lot of people told me to piss off, Whelan mainly.

EM: Wait, no one told me to piss off, Whelan started winking at me when I was filming him... and it wasn't just Whelan thinking about it, Gove was as well.

Smirk.

Spin Room I

Who did TB have a merry chat with last night?



Lots more to come...

Quick Thought

Angus Reid

Cameron 36
Clegg 31
Brown 23


Sun/YouGov

Cameron 41
Clegg 32
Brown 25


ITV/ComRes

Cameron 35
Clegg 33
Brown 26

As the Spin Room quietens down and TB stops chasing around various hacks and politicians with a camera, it's pretty clear from not only the polls, but the desperation of the attacks that this was a good victory for Cameron. Clegg was nailed on immigration and Brown was never really in the fight, bar a good line or two. His non-reference reference to yesterday was poor and no surprise the polls went the way they did at the end.

Check out tomorrow's Guy News for Whelan VS Gove 2, Campbell, Liam Byrne and his coffee, Gabby's briefings, and Lord Moses.

The whole Spin Room is dry... like many others in here TB is gasping for a beer.

The Leaders Debate - Live From Spin Alley

TB is reporting for

Guy News

live from the Spin Room. He will be busy doing some camera handy-work but you can follow his tweet directly here or, along with a few others here:

Live By The Tweet...

The first case of electoral Twitter law breaking in the land and who do you think it could possibly have been... drum roll please... of course. Labour's very own Twitter Tsar Kerry McCarthy. As a lawyer and a whip you would hope she would have just taken a moment to think, "hang on...maybe I shouldn't broadcast this sensitive infomation to the world". She has tried to laugh it off to

Sky

but suddenly it gets serious. Her opponents have a very good case against her in terms of election rules and it seems the

Sunlight Centre

have a very good case against her in terms of the law.

Chief Constable
Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Police Headquarters
PO Box 37
Valley Road, Portishead
Bristol
BS20 8QJ

29th April 2010

By fax to 01275 816 040

COMPLAINT REGARDING KERRY MCCARTHY'S
PUBLICATION OF POSTAL VOTE DATA

To the Chief Constable,

I am writing to ask you to investigate a possible breach of electoral law by Kerry McCarthy, the Labour Party candidate in Bristol East.

On Thursday, April 29th 2010 at 14:36, it appears Ms. McCarthy posted the following information on her Twitter account:

“First PVs opened in east Bristol, our sample: Eng Dems █; Greens █; UKIP █; TUSC █; BNP █; Lib Dem █; Tory █; Labour █. #

gameON

!”

When the information was "retweeted" (re-posted) by other users of the site with queries as to whether her knowing and publishing the information was legal, she apparently deleted the tweet. It seems did this too quickly for it to appear in the Google cache record. It does, however, appear in the records of Tweetminster, an online aggregator of political tweets. The relevant Tweetminster record is appended for your convenience and is available at the following web address: 

https://search.tweetminster.co.uk/statuses/?q=first+pvs+opened+in+east+bristol

Upon phoning Bristol Electoral Services, we were told that all the candidates' agents were present at the opening of around two hundred postal votes this week. They are not meant to see the results, however, and if they do are under strict confidentiality rules, not least because they risk prejudicing the results of the election. There are further laws against publishing the information in written form.

We ask you to investigate whether Ms. McCarthy did, indeed, have access to and publish confidential information about postal votes, and whether her agent could have passed her the information.

Yours faithfully

The letter is with the police.

Callous Smears from Tom Callow

Labour and their supporters really are getting desperate. Take Tom Callow for example:

Apart from bearing an uncanny resemblance to a Swan Vesta, the only other amusing thing about this chap is his Prescott levels of delusion as he attempts to attack any opponent to Gordo.

Yesterday this PR bod and Labour activist was violently off message and spent the afternoon smearing Mrs Duffy as a racist and xenophobe, the evidence of which is plastered across his

Twitter page

. Ouch, such outspoken activists are hardly doing well to help the desperate crisis management team flapping at the top of his Party.

Now Callow has decided it would be a good idea to create some fake Twitter accounts and begin Tweeting attacks as a fake Tory member. "Con Chris" and "Tory Boy 10" have appeared out of nowhere. They have only ever been mentioned by our matchstick man. A laughable attempt for someone who claims to be an PR expert.

TB wonders what if perhaps there was a more productive use of his working hours for

Automotive PR

and their clients...



UPDATE: Seems Callow has already protected his Twitter page on the back of his story. Don't worry, the whole thing has been saved at this end. Nothing to hide, nothing to fear...