A New Poll Method


Seems it was a strange day elsewhere. What exactly was with the Elvis impersonator? Good news that Labour saw sense and have
Polls looking good tonight, back to stuffing envelopes.

After his disastrous Chancellor's Debate on Wednesday, Vince capped off a dreadful week with this:
Via
Gordon Brown said he hadn't authorised leaflets telling lies about pensioners bus passes being threatened. So why does his very
Brown was better than last week but that really isn't saying much. The novelty of Clegg has worn off and he flounders when given the level of scutiny his apparent poll position deserves. Clegg tried hard to keep up the "I'm different" line but frankly it just wasn't effective like last week. He was lucky with the closing statement slot as he got to push his effective line very well.
A much better performance from Cameron, he showed that passion and anger that was so devoid from last week's performance. However he still missed a couple of open goals. He had the chance to tell Brown he was liar over the inheritance tax cuts. Brown lied over the 3000 number and Cameron took it on the chin rather than slamming him and closing down the line of attack forever.
Who won? Well let the spin begin. A draw? Not sure... but there were potshots taken by everyone. No wonder Brown has been so quiet for the last few days. He was busy nailing those lines.
In terms of fighting Clegg, a resurgent Brown could put him back in his box. TB will blog again in an hour or so once the dust has settled.
UPDATE: + YouGov Rapid Poll calls it for Cameron - though stress this happened last week +
TB is donating and backing Farage to the hilt... so are many other Tories. Parliament would be a much more exciting place with Farage on the benches. Get involved and Ban the Bercow.
So perhaps the Mail went a little too far on Britain's next Home Secretary,his speech does show an interesting mindset of someone asking to lead a country he is clearly ashamed of though. The Telegraph's sleaze allegations are a lot more valid. The Liberals are whining that it is personal attack, but frankly it pales in comparison to many of the punches laid on both Brown and Cameron in the last three years. If you can't take the heat...
Via an excellent comment from regular Hughes, lets take a look at some of those policy points.
1) Wanting to piss away our seat at the top table in the UN security council by dumping our nuclear deterrent.
2) Wanting to distance us from our strongest ally, America. Which coupled with the former would leave the UK about as globally relevant as Austria.
3) Wanting our business flexibility to be bound by arbitrary, homogenised rules designed for vast swathes of continental Europe, with vastly different economies and workforces.
4) For us to be financially and legally subsumed in a sovereignty destroying, anti-democratic, cronyistic, unaccountable Euro-superstate.
5) Wanting to levy a huge tax on people who, have no more money than they did before, and through no fault of their own find themselves in homes driven into a so-called "mansion" tax-bracket by irresponsible house-buyers, irresponsible lenders and an irresponsible treasury who let the housing market race out of control. People who have already endured huge rate and council tax increases for the same reason.
6) Supporting the switch to an electoral mechanism which make it impossible to not give at least one vote to a party infatuated with the tax & spend, big government, success-punishment idiocy that landed this country in the shit in the first place.
And don't forget all the nutjob whacky stuff their core base demands...
John Cowan is the Labour candidate for Cambridge and
Apologies for the lack of blogging. TB was having fun with this:
Raging at the stupid graphics messing up the damn border on the Youtube vid but you get the idea...
Two videos hitting the Lib Dems surfaced over night. One from the
Since when has "err I live in Sheffield" been an excuse for redoing your kitchen?
See post below. No wonder Cleggy isn't taking questions from hostile print hacks today...
With great poll leads comes great scrutiny and surprise surprise Clegg is already beginning to show signs he can't take the heat. In the debates he said in a rather saintly fashion that "there are still people who haven’t taken full responsibility" for the expenses crisis. While this is true perhaps Clegg should include himself on that list.
At this morning's presser he came out with a pretty poor defence of his own claims. "“It’s a modest, semi-detached, pebble-dash home, it was in a state of complete disrepair, the garden was a complete eyesore" - What would the neighbours say!?
The things TB does for his good buddy TV's Shane Greer...
No sniggering at the back.
Some interesting factoids out of Osborne's office this evening:
Nuff said.A pollof senior investors at institutions managing a total of £1.75 trillion in assets has shown that:
- 77% think that a Labour victory or hung Parliament could lead to a downgrading of the UK’s sovereign credit rating.
- 74% think that a Labour victory or hung Parliament could lead to a fall in the value of sterling.
- 55% think that a Labour victory or hung Parliament could lead to a long term rise in interest rates.
- 68% think that a Conservative majority is most likely to lead to a rise in the stock market.
Is little David trying to look grown up?
This emerged when TB was in the pub on Friday night, he forgot to put it up over the weekend. Ladies and gentleman...Cameron Girls:
Well made, semi trained singers? Intriguing...
One of TB's eyes and ears was a little shocked to see this poster at Stockwell tube:
Don't let the Liberal Democrats pretend they are anything but "old politicians". The closet Clegg has got to ending "old politics" was his part in stabbing Ming Campbell in the back. And let's not forget the bunfight that followed...
And can someone please remind Clegg next time he discusses the very effective line of "the old parties" that the Liberals are older than Labour!
Sky have to make sure that when the debate is actually brewing, when points are being discussed let the conversation flow and let the public actually see the truth.
All the candidates need to rehearse less, it was all too soundbite-y, too stilted, too cautious. Chill out a bit, stop walking the balancing act and go on what you really believe in. It was all rather passionless. The Cameron we need to see was the angry Dave who was riled up when he got off the campaign bus the other day and slammed the three MPs over their legal aid.
Stop the rehearsals, if you don't know your manifesto now then it's too late.
So it was gaffe free, Brown fibbed, Clegg begged and apparently Dave won. That may be the case but he missed a lot of things out. It was a real shame the helicopter debate was so stiffled. Cameron needs to show a lot more anger next time and really give Brown the kicking he deserves.
So key moments? Did you know Nick Clegg was from Sheffield? He mentioned it enough. Brown told a fair few porkies, he claimed he has promised to increase police spending every year, but Labour's pledge is actually that police numbers will be maintained, not that police funding will rise. He also said “Police have to spend 80 per cent of their time now on the streets.” The Advertising Standards Agency have ruled this statement incorrect and illegal.Cleggs sums were dodgy too. He grabbed an extra £5 billion of savings out of thin air, £15 billion when his manifesto only promises 10.
Brown still doesn't get that if you take money out of the state it is not taking the money out of the economy. The state is not the economy - taking money from the state is not taking money OUT of the economy it is putting it IN.
As for the rest of the debate? It was ruined by ITVs awful set, lighting, sound and graphics and Alastair Stewart was a dire shouty host. What is the point of interupting everyone just as the debate was getting interesting. TB did have to chuckle when he told off Clegg like a naughty schoolboy.
All the candidates could do without the constant name checking of locations and towns. It sounded like a drinking game. Brown's bunker lines fell pretty flat. He should lay of the jokes. Clegg will probably be the polled winner. What did he have to lose? He will still never be in power... A solid perfomance from Cameron but more anger next time would "secure" the victory to coin a phrase.
Of course the most important analysis of the night will be off the choice of ties. TB has the verdict from a top fashionista:
Clegg - Yellow - firstly satin tie, bad move, shade was also murky. Yellow is associated with optimism, and youthfulness however some shades of yellow can be associated with cowardice.
Cameron - Very crisp shirt against a very good blue. Blue can add trust and credibility, also blue causes the body to produce chemicals that are calming.
Brown - Very bad suit/shirt/tie combination. Pink - feminine colour, all image consultants know it is a very bad colour for use on tv presentations. Mainly because it can symbolise naivety or weakness. He would have been better off with red which although can be seen as aggressive and overpowering - it also shows power and energy - especially if the person is shy, giving presentations or in sales. Brown is trying to sell himself. It would have been greatly in his favour.
You read it here first.
From a bug in his dressing room:
Why interrupt again and again just as things are getting good?
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